The budget cirkus

Paulo's Circus, Bristol UK, 2012

At November 22-23 EU leaders will meet in the arena of Brussels for a battle over the EU budget. (photo by dirkjanranzijn, on Flickr)

On November 22. and 23. the 27 EU leaders  will meet in Brussels for a fresh round of summit talks.

The meeting is an extraordinary summit arranged only to deal with the budget negotiations.

Here’s a few reasons, why I bet, that the meeting will end up in nothing.

The veto’s

Up to this meeting three countries has already threatened with veto’s. The United Kingdom and prime minister, David Cameron, has threatened with a veto if the budget size don’t freeze at or below the inflation rate. He is under pressure from his own parliament after they on Wednesday voted against him an demanded real-term cuts in the EU budget.

Denmark has also threatened with a veto on the EU budget, if they don’t get a discount on their membership fee for the European Union they’ll also stop the budget negotiations.

France joined the choir on Wednesday as they threatened with a veto if the farm subsidies is to be trimmed in the EU budget from 2014 till 2020.

Poland and other newer members of the EU will fight for an increase in the budget that will benefit their countries.

At one point rumors said that Angela Merkel would not join the EU summit unless David Cameron and the UK would ease their threats. These rumors were false according to a spokesperson from the Merkel cabinet, but no doubt that she’s really tired of these veto-threats.

I could inly agree. It’s not an optimal way to begin negotiations with several veto’s already at the table. That’s one reason why I think no solution will be found at the EU summit later this month.

Still time

Another reason why I’m pretty sure an agreement on the budget will not be presented later this month is, that there’s still time to find the agreement.

If there should be a chance to get the budget deal done and implemented before january 1st 2014 the EU leaders need to act fast, but a realistic timeline could still be an agreement in the spring next year, 2013.

And as far as I know EU politics, they’ll wait until last minute to seal the deal.

What do you think?

Update: The Financial Times has spoken with an EU official familiar with president of the EU council, Herman Van Rompuy, and now speculates whether Rompuy could suggest a deal with 26 countries on a new EU budget and leave UK out of it. That possibility would increase the chances for a deal already this month, but it would be an extremely drastic move.

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